Friday, July 18, 2014
From Delivering Alpha, July 16, 2014, Pierre Hotel, New York
Joe Kernen of CNBC Squawk Box co-host interviews Stanley Druckenmiller, founder of Duquesne Capital Management and chief executive officer and chairman, Duquesne Family Office LLC
Rough transcript from CNBC:
The following transcript has not been checked for accuracy.
Joe Kernen: So when we have talked in the past, you were even more, I guess, strident about your biggest bets, biggest money and we know how well you've done. we heard Julian Robertson, we know compounded return for years ars and years. betting against central banks. If you can find a mistake, that's what you key on. Sounds like you found a mistake and given the depth of the recession in 2008, and now the type of measures the Fed has used, these were shock and awe measures compared to what was done -- 2002 and 2003, in the bubble, and it scares me. I'm not sure whether I'd hold anything at this point.
Stan Druckenmiller: It's a great question. First of all, at this point in time, I don't see this as systemic. what we believed in 2005 and 2006 was that you had double leverage going on. People borrowed to buy their home, and then they were borrowing against their home, and the shadow banking system had accumulated those debts. So while the Fed thought the crisis was containable, we saw no such thing, because when the bad stuff gets into the banking system itself, it has huge wider implication for the broader economy. The current situation is a little -- is a little trickier, Joe. first of all, like '04, I don't have great certainty how this mistake will end. In fact, I'm not even sure it's going to end badly.
Joe Kernen: And it wouldn't be housing this time. I mean, we're waiting for housing.
Stan Druckenmiller: No. What I am sure is they're making a bad bet. A bad risk/reward. You could go to the lottery and win the lottery, but it doesn't mean it was good bet. So when I look at this monetary policy and i look at all the money my firm has made in the past, due to improper monetary policies, yes, it looks extreme, but since it hasn't infiltrated the banking system, I don't think at this point we're looking at an '08 or an '09 in our future any time. in terms of our future, you said 2000, you gave a speech in 2004. You didn't make the bet for another year, in -- it was 2005 yes. and made the bet when? 2006? I -- I made a lot of are money in '05, because i wanted to ride the overly aggressive policy. '06 i stunk. made some money, but I had left the party, and -- you knew there was a housing bubble, about three, four years early before '08.
This transcript is generated by automated closed captioning, has been edited for capitalization and to identify who is speaking, and may not be entirely accurate.
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
CNBC, July 14, 2014
CNBC reporter and commentar Rick Santelli in Chicago says that the Fed needs to get back to a less volatile form of central banking. If not, there will be a lot of unintended consequences. When Steve Liesman asks should policy be run to please traders in Chicago, Santelli says that the traders didn't contribute a penny to the crisis and the traders erupted in a roar of approval. Santelli argues that the economy and the markets need a better feedback unaffected by the Fed's manipulation.
Monday, July 7, 2014
On CNBC's Squawk Box, July 7, 2014, T. Boone Pickens said the U.S. has made great strides toward energy independence and it is all due to private sector initiative, which has succeeded despite foot dragging and opposition from Washington.
ROUGH PARTIAL TRANSCRIPT:
Becky Quick: Well, Boone, let's talk about where we are today as a nation. what's happened with our own energy production. Where do you think we're headed from here? And just the idea of reaching U.S. independence from OPEC. Is it still a possibility?
Pickens: Oh, it's in sight. It is in sight. If we just, you know, if you go back six years ago, I said you're going to have all this gas, you remember that?
Becky Quick: I do.
Pickens: And now we're now number one in the world in gas. And then we were third. We were about sixth or seventh in oil, and now we're third in oil. So we're number one in gas, third in oil and moving on up. So, I'm not kidding you . . . hats off to the oil and gas industry in America because they provided jobs and oil.
I'll get off that subject, but they do need a -- they've done a good job no kidding. But here we are, sure, we can get off OPEC oil. We're down to 4 million barrels a day of OPEC oil --
Becky Quick: From what?
Pickens: At one time we were over seven [million barrels a day]. So we have come down to four, and we can knock that out within the next three years. All you have to do is switch natural gas over to the heavy duty trucks and that will take you out 3 million barrels.
[Note: Pickens also said that Obama had failed to lead on the issue of increasing energy independence and called Obama "the worst President in 60 years," referring to a recent poll from Quinnipiac in which Americas reported that they rated Obama the worst President since World War II. Pickens's "worst President" quote was omitted from the video posted at the CNBC website. ]
Pickens: We have these fabuluous resourece in America and Washington doesn't focus on it. And it moves along fairly smoothly. You know if you really wanted to help the economy, go ahead and press for the use of our natural gas here. Increase demand here for it. But don't ship it out of country. Our producers should get into any market they want to get into. They went out and spent the money, found the gas, found the oil, they have the right to get into any market. But if you had leadership in Washington, they'd say wait in a minute we have the cheapest energy in the world in America. Whya re we going to share that when we can use it here.
Becky Quick: Boone, the private sector is a beautiful thing the way it's done this because you said no one saw it, no one knew about it.
Pickens: Somehow it happens, and the capital flows downhill where all this happens. Do you think if let's say the obama administration had -- and there's not renewables. We all love renewables, I understand that. we want to do that. We want to do solar. We want to do everything we can to have a huge portfolio of energy. But what if they had been on board all along, where would we be? Because this is where we are without any help, really. Okay. If they'd gone with me six years ago you figure you could have . . .
Link to CNBC.